le gaz libanais 7-01

The Lebanese Gas; Exploration and Exploitation

The Lebanese Gas; Exploration and Exploitation
Prepared by Mr. Adrien Sémon, and reviewed by Mr. Alain Bifani, August 2022

As the whole world struggles with energy issues, strongly echoed by the Ukrainian conflict, the energy mix in major economies is shaken between immediate needs, with heavy reliance on fossil fuels, and critical medium-term climate objectives that require decisive investments in clean energy. On a regional level, the hydrocarbon reserves of the Mediterranean have obviously become more visible and useful to European countries, and even more valuable to Levantine players.

Already before the new tragic developments in Eastern Europe, the fight for hydrocarbons in the Mediterranean or beyond had contributed to wars and tensions in the area. In Lebanon, the country’s hardship on one hand, and the necessary delimitation of maritime borders, on the other hand, have brought the topic of exploring and exploiting offshore assets to the top of the agenda again, also pushed by foreign insistence on the finalization of this long-awaited matter. Today, the country needs to put the framework in place, explore the promising areas, make the most of the opportunities upstream and downstream – including job creation, sustainable businesses, and systemic reforms – and preserve the financial assets obtained against petroleum while making sure that present and future generations optimally benefit from the revenue generated by the related investments. Based on various assessments, our study covers the estimated costs related to our offshore petroleum assets, the investments that are required, the price projected, and the share of the Lebanese government after covering local energy needs from extracted gas, after assessing the increase in electricity demand related to demographic and GDP evolutions.

We analyze four scenarios and their possible implications on Lebanon’s revenue, and we assess neighbors’ consumption needs to draw our future policies, as well as secure our gas transportation infrastructure, and build our alliances.

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